How High Can Tiger Move in the OWGR This Week?

I just thought this was a fun bit of trivia. According to an article at Golf Digest, Tiger could make a big jump from 1199 if he just finishes the Hero this week. Check out this chart from Nosferatu (@VC606):



The article also has a graph showing his approximate OWGR rank for each possible finish position (18 plus no finish) at the event.

Again, I just thought this was a fun bit of trivia. No matter what people say, I think everybody is curious how Tiger will do this week. If nothing else, this makes for great water cooler talk.

Can Stacy Get It Done This Time?

First, a quick note of congratulation to Omar Uresti for his win at the PGA Professional Championship. For those of you who don't recognize the name, Omar was a PGA Tour player for many years -- he made 351 starts, in fact -- but he never won. That doesn't mean he has never won a pro tournament; he has five other wins -- two on the then-Nationwide (now Web.com) Tour, one on the Sunshine Tour, one on the Canadian Tour, and most recently he won the 2015 Southern Texas PGA Championship as a teaching pro. But he was runner-up in this event a year ago, and now he's got the title. Way to go, Omar!

This week the LPGA tees it up in the Walmart NW Arkansas Championship, where Lydia Ko is the defending champion.. As usual, Tony Jesselli has a preview of the event, so you can get the necessary numbers and stats from him. I'll just point out the storylines I think are most interesting this week.



First of all, Ai Miyazato fans will want to tune is, as this is Ai's first appearance since she announced her impending retirement. Ai's last LPGA win came at this event in 2012, so it's a place with good memories for her. I'll be interested to see how she does, as she seems to be at peace with her decision and that may free her up to play well here again.

The defending champ is looking for her first win this season. Many of Lydia's stats say she is playing better -- better even than last year, when she won five times around the world. But her best this year has been a T2 at the LOTTE, and that has allowed Ariya Jutanugarn to take over the top spot in the Rolex Rankings. With Ariya out of the picture this year (Tony says she is no longer scheduled to play), perhaps Lydia can finally make up some ground.

But the biggest question is whether Stacy Lewis can finally get back into the win column this week. Stacy went to school in Arkansas, as you all know, and this event has a strange distinction in her career. It was her first pro win -- she won the very first playing of this event back in 2007 as an amateur, but her win doesn't count as an official tournament because it was weather-shortened to 18 holes. And her last win also came at this event, in 2014.

For so many reasons, it would be appropriate if Stacy got her next win at this event, this week.

After a number of four-round tournaments, the Walmart NW Arkansas Championship is only a 54-hole event. The broadcasts start Friday on GC at 6:30pm ET. With so many potential storylines, even beyond the three I've mentioned, it should be a good show.

Ko's Run as #1 Ends This Weekend

Why is there a photo of So Yeon Ryu here? Because she will determine who is the new Women's #1 when the Rolex Rankings come out next week.



Neither Lydia Ko nor Ariya Jutanugarn is playing at this week's ShopRite LPGA Classic, but So Yeon Ryu is. And that's why she will determine who takes up the crown next week.

Here's the situation: The current Rolex Ranking points look like this:

1. Lydia Ko, 8.40
2. Ariya Jutanugarn, 8.33
3. So Yeon Ryu, 8.21

That's less than .2 points between the three.

Lydia WILL lose her position this week, and either Ariya or So Yeon will take over. For a change, the scenario is very simple:

• If So Yeon finishes in solo third or better this week, she will be the new #1.
• If she finishes T3 or worse, Ariya will be the new #1.

And after the first round, the leader -- Anna Nordqvist -- is at -7, with four players at T2, at -6. So Yeon is at +3, which is T98.

This will be a very interesting weekend for the LPGA.

Lydia Makes a Statement

I said earlier in the week that I expected Lydia Ko to lose her Number One ranking this week, as So Yeon Ryu and Ariya Jutanugarn are within a mere quarter point of her. And while Lydia hasn't been playing badly this year, she hasn't won yet. With Ryu winning the ANA and Jutanugarn defending this week, I think that's a problem.

Apparently Lydia finally decided to take matters into her own hands.



After the first round, Lydia is at -4 (T5), two shots off Lexi Thompson's lead. So Yeon is three shots behind her at -1 (T34), and Ariya another two shots back at +1 (T73). While one round doesn't normally mean a whole lot, Lydia tied her best-ever round at Kingsmill and beat her best first round score by three shots. That's significant.

The LPGA has done a post with the various scenarios where each player will take over -- or in Lydia's case, retain -- the Number One spot. It's a lengthy list, and confusing. But here they are:

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There are several possible scenarios for each player to be ranked No. 1 following the Kingsmill Championship:

• If Lydia Ko wins, she will remain No. 1
• If either So Yeon Ryu or Ariya Jutanugarn win, they will become No. 1
• If Ko, Ryu and Ariya finish T2, Ko will remain No. 1
• If Ko and Ariya finish T2 AND Ryu finishes 3rd or worse, Ko will remain No. 1

So Yeon Ryu could take over No. 1 if any of the following scenarios (12th or better finish) occur:

• Ryu is T2 with Ariya AND Ko finishes 3rd or worse
• Ryu is 2nd alone AND Ko and Ariya finishes T3 or worse
• Ryu is 3rd alone AND Ko and Ariya finishes T4 or worse
• Ryu is 4th alone AND Ko finishes 6th or worse AND Ariya finishes 5th or worse
• Ryu is 5th alone AND Ko finishes 11th or worse AND Ariya finishes 6th or worse
• Ryu is 6th alone AND Ko is not in top 14 AND Ariya is not in top 6
• Ryu is 7th alone AND Ko is not in top 18 AND Ariya is not in top 7
• Ryu is 8th alone AND Ko is not in top 24 AND Ariya is not in top 8
• Ryu is 9th alone AND Ko is not in top 30 AND Ariya is not in top 9
• Ryu is 10th alone AND Ko is not in top 40 AND Ariya is not in top 10
• Ryu is 11th alone AND Ko is not in top 50 AND Ariya is not in top 11
• Ryu is 12th alone AND Ko is not in the top 61 AND Ariya is not in the top 12

Ariya Jutanugarn could take over No. 1 if any of the following scenarios (7th or better finish) occur:

• Ariya is 2nd alone AND Ko and Ryu finish T3 or worse
• Ariya is 3rd alone AND Ko is not in top 5 AND Ryu is not in top 3
• Ariya is 4th alone AND Ko is not in top 8 AND Ryu is not in top 4
• Ariya is 5th alone AND Ko is not in top 14 AND Ryu is not in top 5
• Ariya is 6th alone AND Ko is not in top 21 AND Ryu is not in top 7
• Ariya is 7th alone AND Ko is not in top 29 AND Ryu is not in top 8

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I think it's interesting that So Yeon Ryu has the most potential scenarios to take over the top spot, but Lydia still has a tremendous amount of leeway to prevent her from doing so. I mean, there are scenarios where Lydia can keep her spot just by making the cut. It's insane!

As I said, one round doesn't determine anything. But Ariya is currently below the projected cut and Ryu needs to get past 52 other players -- plus Ko -- to win. (Yes, the top of the leaderboard is absolutely packed after the first round.) If Lydia merely plays solid golf for the rest of the tournament, she's going to be hard to catch.

And that may be the biggest statement Lydia Ko can make this week. I certainly heard her loud and clear.