Testing Players VS Protecting Par

Sunday's post was a rant about US Open setups, but this post is more about a mindset that I just don't understand. Can you test players and protect par at the same time?



USAToday posted an article (from which the photo came) that wonders whether Shinnecock has become obsolete as a US Open course. I believe that's a flawed view to begin with.

The real question is whether the USGA's concept of a US Open setup is obsolete. And that, I believe just as strongly, is very likely.

My Sunday rant took the USGA to task for ignoring the "architect's intent" for the way the course should play -- specifically, the speed at which classically contoured greens should be played. (If you read that post early on, I added an extra paragraph early Sunday because I realized there were a couple of things the USGA does that I don't have a problem with, but I didn't mention them so I wanted that to be clear.) I contend that if you need to challenge the pros, you don't burn the greens out and make them impossibly fast. Rather, you make them a little smaller and still keep them playable.

You see, the USGA's idea of "protecting par" seems nonsensical to me. And I offer Sunday's setup as proof.

A total of 67 players made the cut at Shinnecock. And after the debacle on Saturday, the USGA on Sunday made what most of us -- me included -- consider an overcompensation. And let's be honest, they needed to. They owed Shinnecock an apology for swearing up and down that they wouldn't make the same mistakes they made in 2004... and then they made worse ones on Saturday.

But after looking at how the course played in the final round, I simply don't understand WHY the USGA made the decisions they did on Saturday in the first place!

Let's look at the facts.

Of the 67 players to make the cut, Sunday’s admittedly soft setup produced only 15 scores below par, and only four better than -2. That's just over 22% of the field -- not even a quarter of them broke par. If you want the exact breakdown, there was:

• one 63 (-7)
• one 65 (-5)
• one 66 (-4)
• one 67 (-3)
• three 68s (-2)
• eight 69s (-1)

Of the Top15 finishers, only seven bettered par, while only one bettered -2. That was Fleetwood's 63, of course. Then there were three each of the 68s and 69s.

And the field average was 72.3 strokes. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that's an average of two over par for the entire field.

Sunday's setup involved slowing the greens down to what they should have been all along, softening the greens a bit more than necessary, and moving roughly half the flags to the center of their respective greens. They made the course MUCH easier than most of us believe was necessary, yet less than a quarter of the field beat par and the field average was more than two strokes over par.

If that setup didn't test the players, and if if was too easy in the USGA's eyes to "protect par," then what the hell do they think their job is???

If they believe their job is to prevent ANY player from breaking par, then they aren't interested in testing the players' skills. I repeat what I said Sunday -- they can get those kind of results by using a cow pasture, but the results won't be what I'd call 'golf.'

Some will debate that it's the fault of the equipment but, from a historical standpoint, the US Open is typically won with a score close to -8. If there's a need to blame something for good scores, then blame it on the influx of athletes to our game. And since that's presumably what everybody wanted, in order to legitimize our game as a sport in the general public's eyes, then making the course artificially harder to keep them from doing what they do seems a bit myopic to me. It's the equivalent of the NBA raising the baskets an extra five to ten feet during the Playoffs. It defies common sense.

If the debacle at Shinnecock -- and the resultant 'easy' setup on Sunday -- has proven anything, it's that the USGA needs to reexamine its understanding of how to 'test players' and 'defend par.' Because as far as I can see, when you have a legendary course like Shinnecock, you don't really need to push the course to the edge to create a test that protects par.

You just need some respect for the course and a little common sense.

The Limerick Summary: 2018 US Open

Winner: Brooks Koepka

Around the wider world of golf: So Yeon Ryu won the Meijer LPGA Classic for Simply Give; Isi Gabsa won in a playoff at the Forsyth Classic on the Symetra Tour; George Cunningham won the GolfBC Championship on the Mackenzie Tour - PGA TOUR Canada; and Motin Yeung won in a playoff at the Kunming Championship on the PGA TOUR China.



Sure, the USGA probably overreacted a bit with their setup on Sunday at the US Open. But they didn't make it too soft, as the lack of low scores proved. Of the 67 players to make the cut, Sunday’s admittedly soft setup produced only 15 scores below par, only four better than -2.

Clearly, the USGA needs to learn what "let 'em play" means. It shouldn't take an error like Saturday's to give us a usable setup.

While Tommy Fleetwood managed to become only the sixth US Open player to post a 63 - on the 45th anniversary of Johnny Miller's, no less - and a handful of players like Patrick Reed kept things interesting, it was Brooks Koepka's steady play that stole the show. In a traditional exhibition of hanging tough, his -2 round of 68 was all it took to become the first man in 29 years to win back-to-back US Opens.

It was shocking to see those we expected to contend, like DJ, Rose and Stenson, deserted by their putters. Of the challengers, only Fleetwood truly made good on the promise he's shown over the last couple of seasons.

But even a historic score wasn't enough to stop the defending champion. When I posted my "5-to-Watch" post earlier this week, I wrote:

Defending champ Brooks Koepka has never played Shinnecock, but his excellent play at Erin Hills last year proves he can hold his own on a fairly wide course, which the new Shinnecock is. Having recovered from his wrist injury, he looks to be back in the kind of form he was at last year's event, He's not getting a lot of attention this week, but I think he has to be taken seriously.

And according to GC, that lack of attention indeed drove him to hang in there when he dropped to +7 early in Friday's play. Having won two majors before his 30th birthday, he won't be underestimated going forward. I know I won't.

In the meantime, Brooks can drink a toast from the Cup while he reads his newest Limerick Summary. I suspect he'll be adding quite a few more before he's done!

Back-to-back isn’t what we expected—
Back-to-back, as the field was dissected
So methodically! Brooks
Drained a few birdie looks;
Now his two major wins are connected!

The photo came from this page at europeantour.com.

It Happened Again...

And I just don't understand why the USGA keeps struggling with course setup. The solution is simple.



There is a lot of talk about the "architect's intent" and making sure that the course is treated in a way that preserves that intent. Yet the USGA continually tries to set up US Open courses in a way that ignores the clear implications of their chosen course's design.

There are limits to how far you can push any course's design. In their efforts to "test" the players, the USGA takes a classic design, with greens that the architect designed with contours meant to be played at perhaps 10-11 on the stimpmeter, and they push those greens up to 13. They push them until the surface is brown and dying -- excuse me, but aren't they called "greens" for a reason? -- and then act surprised when good shots roll off them like they were made of cheap linoleum.

When the USGA wants to test a player's ability to hit a fairway, do they dry them out until they're so brown and hard that every ball rolls into the rough? No, they narrow the fairway and grow the grass around them a bit higher -- not so much that the ball can't be hit a decent distance -- so shots that aren't hit perfectly (but aren't terrible either) demand a price but can still be played.

So why don't they just do the same with the greens? All they have to do is make the greens a bit smaller. Decrease their perimeter by a foot or two, so that a well-struck shot has room to land but a poorly-struck one won't stay on the green. Let the grass in the surround grow a bit taller -- not so much that the ball must be dug out of the rough, but enough that a putt or a chip takes a little extra skill. And then they can stimp the greens at the speed intended by the architect.

[ADDENDUM: I wrote this late Saturday night and, when I woke up Sunday morning, realized I forgot to mention that shaving the edges of the greens -- so poorly-hit shots rolled off -- would be alright as well. The pin position may demand that you hit away from the pin and leave a longer putt; that's okay too. My point is that green speeds should be appropriate to the design of the green complex, so that a well-hit shot always holds and is not left to luck.]

Is that really so hard, folks? Test the players by giving them a slightly smaller target, rather than transforming grass into stone?

This isn't about testing the players. This is about pursuing an unrealistic goal, one based on how equipment from a century past behaved. If they want players to shoot 15-over, they can play the US Open in a cow pasture. At least it would be played on grass, the way the game was intended.

But it still wouldn't be golf, now would it?

I agree that the 16-under score of last year's event at Erin Hills wasn't what we want to see at a US Open. But setting things up so the game resembles craps instead of golf isn't the answer. This time, the final pairing will be two players who, if the course has been just reasonably consistent all day,  probably would not have been in contention.

If the USGA can't understand how to set up a fair golf course that STAYS fair for an entire round, perhaps it's time they let someone else take over course preparation.

End of rant.

In a Strange Way, the Weather Was the Story...

Because it has changed our view of Dustin Johnson. Let's take a look at the first two days of the US Open.



Shinnecock Hills is an old soul among golf courses, in many ways the American equivalent of St. Andrews. It's not just its age, being the second-oldest course in the US (1891; the oldest is Exeter Country Club in New Hampshire, 1889), but the fact that it is still able to host a modern major without any of the shortcomings other older courses have -- it can handle the modern infrastructure of the PGA Tour while still holding its own against the power hitters -- makes it and St. Andrews kindred spirits.

So why has the weather changed our view of DJ? The weather has refused to follow the weather bureau's dictates -- not just because it gave us unexpected rain on Wednesday and Thursday but, as Jim Furyk put it on Friday:

When we were getting up this morning there was a zero percent chance of rain. I think when we got here I heard someone say it jumped to 15 percent. And then it rained for two hours.

Instead of dry and sunny, Friday started off rainy and gray -- and DJ played in the worst part of the draw both days, in Thursday's wind and Friday's cold rain. And yet -- AND YET -- DJ calmly shot 69-67 in the worst of it while many big names missed the cut playing the best side of the draw.

This isn't what was expected of DJ. I picked him to win in my "5 to Watch" post, but even I wouldn't have predicted this. DJ's domination to this point, in the week following a dominating win, wouldn't be expected of any player. (Bear in mind that no one has ever won a US Open after winning the week before... not even Tiger.)

Speaking of my "5 to Watch," I appear to have done much better than normal this week, despite not knowing how the USGA would set up Shinnecock.

• Dustin Johnson has, of course, a four-stroke lead at -4.
• Justin Rose is T4 at -1.
• Brooks Koepka is also T4 at -1.
• Phil is back in the pack, T35 at +6. But after hitting 26 of 28 fairways, it's hard to believe he could be that far back!

And while at +10 Tiger didn't make the cut, I made him my flier pick because I didn't know if his entire game would show up. It's worth noting that he was +7 on just holes 1 and 2, so I'd have to agree with Justin Thomas:

He [Tiger] definitely didn't have it, but, really, he didn't play that poorly.

A lot of the top players didn't fare any better than Tiger -- Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy come to mind -- so it's hard to disagree with Thomas.

However, that's all water under the bridge. Now we head into the weekend, and the weather -- if the predictions are finally correct -- should be very good and we should see some lower scores. But the tall lanky figure of Dustin Johnson is casting a huge shadow across this major, and the field is going to need some help if they want to catch him.

• Will DJ stumble at some point this weekend? Probably.
• Will any of the players be able to mount a charge? Again, probably. There are ten players between even and +2, and DJ's four-stroke lead could vanish with one bad shot. Doubles, triples and worse have been quite common at Shinnecock this week.

But my money's still on Dustin. Unless somebody waxes the steps where he's staying this weekend, I wouldn't bet on him slipping up this time.

US Open: Things to Watch for Today (Videos)

I'll have some thoughts on the first two days of the US Open tomorrow, but here's a clip from GC you may have missed with three things to watch for during today's round.



The three points?

1. How will Friday's conditions compare to Thursday's?
2. How will DJ fare playing with part of the lead today?
3. Which big names will manage to make the cut?

Although it's not mentioned in the video, while the wind is supposed to drop to around 10mph today, it will start the day blowing in the same unusual direction it blew on Thursday, then slowly change direction until they get the standard winds in the afternoon. Which means that the wind will be largely unpredictable for the players.

The following video from ESPN is what Tiger said after his round, but the page the video came from has a longish preview of the second round.



My personal opinion? The young guns finally learned to appreciate just how impressive the multiple US Open winners like Tiger, Phil, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen really are... and we'll see just how many of them have what it takes to play a REAL US Open setup.

As I said, I'll have my view of the first two rounds in tomorrow's post.

My "5 to Watch" at the US Open

The majors come fast and thick during the summer, and this week the men are back in the spotlight with the US Open.



I don't need to give you all the details, what with GC's day-to-night coverage leading up to the event and FOX's similar coverage starting Thursday. But the event's first return to Shinnecock since 2004 and "Greengate" presents us with fascinating possibilities -- especially since the track is now 7400 yards.

I suspect that Jordan Spieth is correct when he says studying previous Shinnecock Opens won't be very helpful this time around. Agronomic practices have evolved dramatically since 2004, so conditions will likely be exactly what the USGA wants... and we really don't know what they have planned for the next few days.

Consequently, my "5 to Watch" are mostly chalk picks, although it's fair to say there are perhaps 15 chalk picks I could make.

• Let's start with Phil Mickelson, the man gunning for the career Grand Slam at this major. Lefty isn't just a sentimental pick this time around, as his game has been very good this year. He comes into this major with a win earlier this season and several high finishes leading into this week. And while past history here is probably no indication of success this week, the fact remains that Phil is one of the few players to have played this course in major condition -- twice -- and he finished Top5s both times. (One of them is, of course, a runner-up.) That bodes well for him.
• Defending champ Brooks Koepka has never played Shinnecock, but his excellent play at Erin Hills last year proves he can hold his own on a fairly wide course, which the new Shinnecock is. Having recovered from his wrist injury, he looks to be back in the kind of form he was at last year's event, He's not getting a lot of attention this week, but I think he has to be taken seriously...
• As does 2016 champ Dustin Johnson. DJ seems to be fully recovered from last year's tumble down the steps at Augusta, and he's coming off a win last week. Given how well he's played so far this season and how easily he got that win last week, I see no reason to think he'll slow down this week. DJ has a proven ability to post wins in bunches, so why not continue the run?
• Justin Rose has been on a tear for the last few months, having four total wins on the PGA, European and Asian Tours in just the last nine months. He won in Fort Worth just a couple of weeks back, so he too is on a promising career trajectory coming into this week. I think the diversity of his recent wins may give him a leg up on the rest of the field.
• And my flier is... Tiger Woods. Why make Tiger a flier pick this week? He has improved much more quickly this season than I had anticipated, and he has gotten into contention a few times already this season. It really is just a question of whether he can get his driver, irons and putter all working at the same time. But Shinnecock's sinuously undulating fairways should minimize his driver problems and, given that his irons have been the most dependable part of his game so far, it's just a question of whether he can get the putter to cooperate. The good news for him is that a US Open course usually doesn't require extremely low scores, so the scores he's shot with a balky putter may be enough.

And my pick? Look, I really want to pick Phil because I'd like to see him make some history that no one else has done -- the oldest player to complete the career Grand Slam. But my gut says Dustin Johnson is playing too well right now and he has too much to prove -- remember Butch's comments that he wasn't working hard enough? So I have to go with DJ at Shinnecock.

But hey, Phil, if you're listening... I won't cry if you prove me wrong. Good luck, bud.

How Will Phil Play This Week?

Perhaps the more obvious question is, WHY is Phil playing this week? After all, he finished T5 at Wells Fargo the week before THE PLAYERS... and then missed the cut. He said he was too tired when he arrived at Sawgrass.



It begs the question, doesn't it? The US Open is next week, the major he needs for the career Grand Slam... and the one where he has finished runner-up six times. He NEEDS to be fresh!

We all know he likes to play the week before a major, in order to sharpen his game. It has worked in the past, but that's when he was younger. This strategy may be less effective as he ages.

And while the analysts may forget, I think his arthritis is part of the reason he tires more easily these days. Anyone who takes a medicine regularly can tell you that, although they're grateful for the medicine and that it helps with whatever condition it's meant to control, the medicine itself has an effect on their bodies... and typically, tiring more easily is one of those effects. That's just the way life is.

But I do think one thing is different this week. As Phil told the media about this week's course, TPC Southwind:

“I feel the best way for me to prepare for the U.S. Open is to get in contention and get sharp mentally and with my game,” Mickelson said. “That’s what playing here in Memphis does. Precision is a key factor at this course.

“[TPC Southwind] doesn’t beat you up with length, you don’t have to go out and bomb it. You’ve got to be precise with every shot off the tee.”

Quail Hollow is long and demanding, and I don't think Phil took that into account. He shot 64-69 on the weekend on a course that plays roughly 7600 yards. That's probably not the best strategy to keep yourself fresh. But TPC Southwind is under 7250 yards, and Phil routinely plays well there.

So how will Phil play this week? I know what he should do. He should forget about winning the tournament and just work on getting the ball in play and putting decently. If he does that AND somehow wins the event, that's fine.

But I'm afraid Phil will go all out to try and win this event, especially since he has two T2s and a T3 in the last five years. And if he does that, with Shinnecock scheduled to play around 7450 yards, what will happen next week is anyone's guess.

The USGA Dumps the 18-Hole Playoff Format (Video)

It's official, and here's USGA Executive Director and CEO Mike Davis on Golf Central to explain how and why the USGA changed its mind about Monday playoffs at their events.



So starting this year, the USGA will use a two-hole aggregate playoff to break ties at the end of all four USGA championships and, if that's not enough, they'll go to sudden death till they get a winner.

It'll be interesting to see how the format goes over with the various "voices" around the golf world. But it's worth noting that this brings the USGA in line with the other three majors.

My "5 to Watch" at the US Women's Open

It's time for the third LPGA major of the year, the US Women's Open at Trump National Bedminster in Bedminster NJ.



The defending champion is Brittany Lang, although in many ways Brittany seems to be a forgotten player this week. Her best finish this season is a T13, and she's missed two of her last three cuts. She'll have her work cut out for her if she hopes to repeat.

As usual, Tony Jesselli has a preview of the event at his site. Tony and his wife are at the event this week and you can also see photos he has taken if you check some of his other posts.

Well, that takes care of the window dressing. Time to get down to business and make my picks.

As you may expect, I'm not taking some of the better players who I might typically pick.

• I still don't think Lydia Ko is quite back in major form.
• I'm bothered by Ariya Jutanugarn's recent WD due to a shoulder injury.
• Ironically, I don't think Inbee Park's putting is quite up to the task right now.
• And while Lexi Thompson's mom is finally finished with her radiation treatments, I'm not sure her mind is going to be fully on her game.

So who does that leave? To be honest, I'm not sure anybody's a lock this week. But let's see what I can come up with:

• Let's start off with Danielle Kang. Normally I wouldn't pick someone who has just won their first major -- as my regular readers know, I generally figure on a two- to three-month readjustment period. But Danielle has been building to this over the last few months and she said she "found something" at her last event, which happened to be her major. So I'm going to take a gamble on her this week.
• Likewise, So Yeon Ryu has become a standard in my picks because, even if she doesn't win, she's so consistent that she has a good chance to get in contention. I see no reason to leave her bandwagon yet.
• Brooke Henderson is right on the cusp of a big win. In her last three starts she got a win at the Meijer and a runner-up at the KPMG. So how can I leave her off my list?
• Michelle Wie is struggling a mild case of whiplash from an off-season car accident. However, she's played extremely well lately, with three Top4 finishes in her last few starts. I'm thinking that bump-up is the reason she's played with such a controlled swing as of late, and that should serve her well this week. After all, that's how she got her first major -- also a US Women's Open.
• And my flier is Cristie Kerr, who basically just needs for her putter to catch fire this week. With her, it could happen.

This could be a wide-open major, at least for the ballstrikers. It's a new venue so no one really has the advantage of experience here. That certainly levels the playing field and, although I didn't pick any new winners, I could definitely see one getting the trophy this week.

But I've gotta go with my gut, and my gut says that Ryu is due. She broke through on a tough US Open course, and that's what they should be facing this week. So yeah, I'm going chalk.

Remember that USGA events are being covered by FOX now, so coverage begins Thursday at 2pm ET on FOX Sports 1. Also be sure to check out the LPGA leaderboard page, as there are numerous listings for online coverage at usga.org.

Some Observations on Erin Hills

No one knew what to expect when the US Open actually got started at Erin Hills. After all, it looked like a bomber's paradise.



What we learned in short order is that Mike Davis is as devious as Pete Dye. Erin Hills is a wolfish US Open layout in sheep's clothing. Those wide open fairways aren't as wide as they appear. How can that be? Isn't a 60-foot wide fairway plenty wide for all but the worst hack? Aren't the knee-deep fields of fescue too far off the centerline to cause trouble for the best in the world?

Much has been made of the lay of the land, shaped by receding glaciers 10,000 years ago and barely altered by the architects. But those severe mounds and valleys, coupled with tilted fairways that resemble waves on a stormy green sea, mean that golf balls don't necessarily bounce in predictable ways.

And apparently -- this is why I liken Davis to Dye -- apparently the length of the course and the rolling fairways create an illusion of narrowness, and Davis recognized this when he walked the original routing, even before the course was built. Even the best golfers, all of whom are familiar with the optical illusions Dye creates in his designs, simply can't convince themselves that they have enough room to just "let 'er fly." Instead, they tend to overshape their shots, actually flying the ball deep into the fescue.

With rare exceptions, it was the shorter hitters who posted the best scores on Thursday. Of the Tour's 26 hitters who average over 300 yards, only Brooks Koepka (#5 in the list) and Xander Schauffele (#22) made it into the Top10 on the leaderboard. Kevin Na's tweet that short hitters had a chance because accuracy would be more important than length this week -- and that short hitters are naturally more accurate -- seems to have been prophetic.

Then again, perhaps the shorter hitters just can't reach the fescue. That might have something to do with it as well.

As for the scores, Rickie Fowler's -7 tied the record for lowest opening round score in relation to par. The other holders of the record? Jack Nicklaus and Tom Weiskop, who both shot -7 (aggregate score: 63) at Baltusrol in 1980. It's worth noting that Jack won the tournament with -8.

Rickie's total on Thursday tells us nothing about what might win this week, but I won't be surprised if we see something similar -- either because the USGA toughens up the course (they probably feel safe doing so now) or because bad weather comes in.

There were also a record number of players under par -- a total of 44. However, only ten scored -4 or better, and another seven posted -3. So while there may have been more scores under par, most of them weren't unrealistically low. I don't think it will mean much for the final result.

Ultimately, I think this US Open will play out much as the others have. The USGA will toughen up the course, and the weather will complicate things (either with dry conditions and wind, or wet conditions and wind). It's possible that we could see a record low score, of course. But except for Tiger's win in 2000 (-12) and Rory's in 2011 (-16) -- both of which were weather-related -- no one has EVER needed a final score of more than -9 to take the title. I don't expect this championship to be any different.

Oh, and one more thing: Yesterday I said I suspected the 6-9pm ET broadcast on Fox would be a recap. I was wrong. I didn't take the time zone into account. The late broadcast on Fox is showing the late groupings, so you'll want to check it out if your favorite player has a late tee time today.

A Couple of Reminders

With so much going on today, I thought I should post some TV info so you can keep up with it all.



First of all, remember that the US Open is on FOX, not GC. The FOX Sports 1 channel is broadcasting all day, from 11am to 6pm ET. Then they switch over to the regular FOX channel for three hours (6-9pm ET) for what I imagine will be a condensed broadcast of the highlights.

Second, although the US Open will pretty much dominate all of men's golf this week, the ladies are still in action. GC will broadcast the Meijer LPGA Classic from 4-7pm ET. You can read the normal preview of the event over at Tony Jesselli's blog, Lydia Ko will begin her campaign to regain the #1 spot from Ariya Jutanugarn, as both are in the field this week.

So you've got plenty of choice today. You can watch the men on FOX or the women on GC. It's gonna be a good week!

My "5 to Watch" at the US Open

Finally! We'll get to see how the pros handle the fescue-laden Erin Hills course as they vie for the 2017 US Open title



I suppose you already know the basics -- Erin Hills will host Wisconsin's first US Open, new daddy Dustin Johnson is the defending champion, Phil Mickelson desperately wants a weather delay on Thursday while first alternate Roberto Diaz desperately wants good weather, and the analysts have no idea what to expect since Erin Hills is unlike anything they've ever seen before.

So let's move on.

Let me start by eliminating a few names from my "5 to Watch" list and tell you why they've been left off.

• Phil Mickelson: Obviously I don't think the weatherman is going to cooperate with him.
• Rory McIlroy: I want to stress that I'm leaving Rory off purely because of the rib injury. I remember how much trouble Brandt Snedeker had with his rib injury a couple of years back. I'm not convinced Rory will survive the week, especially if he hits a couple in the rough.
• Jason Day: Look, I know his mother is feeling better and her cancer treatment is going well. But I just don't think he's quite over the emotional strain yet.

That doesn't mean they can't play well. (Although Phil's weekend game in California probably won't help him win his sixth major.) I just think these "life issues" will affect them enough to throw their games off a bit.

So who am I picking? It's a hodge-podge that might surprise you.

• Of course, I have to include Dustin Johnson. I think DJ is playing the best of anyone right now, having won two WGCs under wildly differing conditions. And now he gets to hit that driver into fairways that are 60 yards wide? It's just not fair.
• Thomas Pieters is due to win on the PGA Tour, and a big European-looking course like Erin Hills seems tailormade for his game. He's not quite as accurate as DJ... but 60-yard fairways? Like I said, it's just not fair.
• I admit that even I'm surprised at this one, but Sergio Garcia makes my handful of faves this time. Normally, I would give a player who just had a super-emotional Masters win a three-month pass and, with his wedding coming up at the end of that time, I wouldn't expect him to do anything this week. But Sergio is defying my expectations with his play since the Masters. I don't believe that bit about floodgates opening just because a player wins a major, but Sergio's win seems to have been the result of an improved mental game. THAT just might change his fortunes.
• Jon Rahm is another player who is on his game. I no longer care that he's a rookie -- Rahm is a force of nature! Erin Hills and the US Open are not too big for him, and his emotional outbursts don't undermine his confidence. He can win here.
• And for my flier, I'm taking Steve Stricker. It's not just that Stricks is at home. Rather, it's all about his health. He says he's playing pain-free for the first time in quite a while, and his schedule over the last few weeks proves it. I agree with Kevin Na -- short hitters have a chance at Erin Hills; heavy rains have a way of evening the odds. With his game and these wide fairways, I like his chances to become the oldest major winner ever.

As tempting as all of these players are, I still have to go with Dustin Johnson. He's on a high from his new son's birth, and the Masters withdrawal left a bad taste in his mouth. I don't believe there's a lock to win this thing, but DJ's probably the closest thing we've got.

Phil Likely to Skip the US Open

In case you missed it, Phil Mickelson announced that he will probably miss the US Open to attend his daughter's high school graduation.



You can get all the details from this PGATOUR.com article, but basically it comes down to this: Phil's daughter Amanda is the school president and scheduled to give the commencement address. Since her graduation is on Thursday morning of the US Open, and Phil lives in California -- which is two hours behind Wisconsin, where the US Open will be held -- even an afternoon tee time is unlikely to give him enough time to fly back after the graduation ceremony.

Look at it this way: It takes roughly four hours to fly from CA to WI, and then you have the two-hour time difference. If Phil was able to leave at 11am CA time, it would still be around 5pm WI time before he arrived -- much too late to play.

Phil hasn't withdrawn yet. It's possible that something could happen to make it all possible -- perhaps the graduation ceremony has to be rescheduled for some reason, or the first round of the US Open gets a weather delay. But Phil isn't counting on either, and said he wanted his alternate into the event to be ready to play, as well as for the USGA to know before they made the TV tee times.

But even if Phil misses the Erin Hills major, the next two sites -- Shinnecock Hills and Pebble Beach -- should give him good shots at the one major that has eluded him. The 2020 site, Winged Foot, might suit him as well...

Assuming that daughter Sofia doesn't have her graduation during that week.

Jack Nicklaus on Playing a Double Dogleg

Golf Digest just put this strategy article by Jack Nicklaus on the site a couple of days ago. The fact that it's a guide to playing double dogleg holes is awesome enough -- but the hole he uses is the par-4 12th hole at Erin Hills, the site of this year's US Open. This is a chance to get a good strategy lesson from Jack, as well as a first look at the unfamiliar course.

Check out the article at Golf Digest first, then come back and click on the diagram below. It'll open a window. Right-click and choose "view image," and you'll be able to enlarge the graphic so you can read all of Jack's notes.


Of all the tips included in the diagram above, the one that stands out to me most is labeled Shorter is Better. Jack says that the green is so small that he can't imagine many situations where he'd want to chip from anywhere but the short grass in front of the green.

THE TIP: Before you hit your approach shot to the green, decide where you want to be if you miss the green. You don't want to shortside yourself, and that's a real possibility on a small green like this.

We're only a month away from the US Open, friends. I bet a lot of the players will be studying this diagram!